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Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.
Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
Trump's trial showed the legal system works, but his rhetoric has left scars
Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.
Do global election trends provide insight into the US election?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.
It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
The pandemic upended the factors that used to predict consumer sentiment.
7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma
House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good could lose renomination.
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
Should voters look at election forecast as codification?
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.
How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.
10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada
All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.
Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
How the jury got to the guilty verdict
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty
Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.
Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand
Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 27-29 | 1.1 | Biden 41% 44% Trump | Trump +3 | |
| June 28 | 2.7 | Biden 45% 48% Trump | Trump +3 | |
| June 28 | 1.8 | Biden 45% 44% Trump | Biden +1 | |
| June 28 | 2.8 | Biden 43% 45% Trump | Trump +2 | |
| June 26-28 | 2.7 | Biden 40% 46% Trump | Trump +6 | |
| June 27-28 | 2.0 | Biden 38% 45% Trump | Trump +7 | |
| June 23-25 | 2.9 | Biden 42% 42% Trump | Even | |
| June 20-25 | 3.0 | Biden 37% 40% Trump | Trump +3 | |
| June 22-24 | 2.0 | Biden 38% 38% Trump | Even | |
| June 20-24 | 2.8 | Biden 37% 43% Trump | Trump +6 |
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Latest updates
With 133 days until Election Day, our forecast still sees the presidential race as a pure toss-up. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in XXX out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in XXX of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In XXX simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
Last week, Biden “pulled ahead” of Trump in our averages of national presidential election polls for the first time this cycle. I put “pulled ahead” in scare quotes because his margin topped out at just +0.3 percentage points — squarely within our model’s uncertainty interval for the state of public opinion today. The rising national tide has lifted Biden’s boat in Michigan and Wisconsin, too, though Trump still edges him out in Pennsylvania. Our model’s current estimate of the gap between the winning candidate’s margin nationally and in the Electoral College is currently D+1.4 points — meaning Biden needs to win the national popular vote by 1.4 points to be favored to win a majority of electoral votes.
On Thursday, June 27, CNN will host the first televised debate of the cycle between Biden and Trump. This will be the first big opportunity for the candidates to shake up the race; since 1976, in the two weeks after the first debate of the cycle, the margin between the two candidates in polls has changed by 2.4 percentage points on average, and up to 5 points in rare cases. But since Biden and Trump are known quantities, whether either candidate can really make a splash is doubtful. Check back over the next week to see how our model reacts to the first post-debate polls.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
| Biden wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 22 out of 100 |
| Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 12 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 27 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 36 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the national popular vote | 62 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote | 38 out of 100 |
| Biden wins a majority of the national popular vote | 23 out of 100 |
| Trump wins a majority of the national popular vote | 10 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 14 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 5 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 12 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
| No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
| Every state votes for the same candidate that it did in 2020 | <1 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 5 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | 61 out of 100 |
| Biden wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 49 out of 100 |
| Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 79 out of 100 |
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